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The playing field before the release of US non-farm payroll data looked somewhat negative for risk on the back of headlines from China and Europe. China's non-manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in January from 56.0 in December, forcing some concern about the growth rate of the mainland to resurface, though the soft-landing psychology remained in command. Europe followed with a disappointing retail sales report for December.
The Colombian Central Bank surprised literally everyone (us included) but one analyst in the market (based on the responses to the Bloomberg survey) with the decision to hike intervention interest rates by +25bps during the January meeting. As argued before, we clearly did not expect the Central Bank to hike rates at this meeting, but rather to wait until March before deciding in favor of lifting the intervention rate by +25bps (to 5%).
As we argued in our December monthly publication, Bulltick's base case is that 2012 will be a year of "resolution". And we think that such resolution promises to be a binery one. In our view, 2012 will be either a very positive year for world equity markets, especially the emerging market ones, following stabilizing dynamics in Europe and decent US growth, or it will prove to be an extremely negative one, following a hypothetical complete collapse of the European banking system
The labor department announced on Friday morning that the US economy had created a total of +243k new jobs in January, delivering a significantly better performance compared to analyst expectations of the US economy creating +140k last month, and above our own estimations of the US economy creating a total of +175k new jobs in January (see our January 4, 2012 Mid-Day Report).
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